EOBI Faces Rs237 Billion Projected Deficit by 2037 – What It Means for Pensioners

The Employees’ Old-Age Benefits Institution (EOBI) is facing a major long-term financial challenge, with official projections indicating that its pension fund could face a deficit of more than Rs237 billion by 2036-37 if current financial conditions continue.

The issue was discussed during a meeting of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC), where EOBI’s long-term financial sustainability and future pension obligations were reviewed.

According to information presented to the ECC, the institution may need higher contribution collections, stronger investment returns and additional financial support to protect the pension fund over the long term.

How Large Is the Projected EOBI Deficit?

The latest actuarial projections cited by Business Recorder estimate that EOBI could face a deficit of approximately:

Rs237.048 billion by financial year 2036-37.

This does not mean EOBI currently has a Rs237 billion deficit.

Instead, it is a long-term projection based on future pension payments, contributions, investment income and the expected growth in the number of beneficiaries.

That distinction is important for pensioners.

The projection is essentially a warning that without reforms, rising pension obligations could eventually place significant pressure on the fund.

Why Could EOBI Face a Deficit?

EOBI receives money mainly through contributions and investment income.

At the same time, it must continue paying pensions and other benefits to eligible workers and their families.

According to the actuarial assessment, contributions are expected to increase over time, but pension payments are also expected to rise.

The projections suggest contribution growth alone may not be enough to cover the increasing pension burden over the longer term.

Several factors can affect EOBI’s financial sustainability, including:

• Growth in the number of pensioners
• Increasing monthly pension payments
• Employer contribution collections
• Investment returns
• New worker registrations
• Administrative expenses
• Government financial support

EOBI Fund Could Peak Before Declining

One of the most important findings from the actuarial projections is that EOBI’s fund balance is expected to continue growing for several years before potentially beginning to decline.

The fund balance is projected to peak at around:

Rs629.1 billion in 2028-29.

After that point, rising pension liabilities could gradually put increasing pressure on the fund.

Under existing assumptions, the financial position could eventually move into deficit by 2036-37.

Are EOBI Contributions Increasing?

Yes.

EOBI’s contribution collections have increased substantially in recent years.

According to figures presented to the ECC:

2022-23: approximately Rs39 billion

2023-24: approximately Rs60 billion

2024-25: approximately Rs80 billion

This shows strong growth in contribution receipts.

However, EOBI is also paying more in pensions as the number of beneficiaries increases.

EOBI Investment Income Is Also Growing

Investment income is another important source of funds for EOBI.

Reported investment income increased from approximately:

Rs57.059 billion in 2022-23

to

Rs68.584 billion in 2023-24

and then to

Rs77.617 billion in 2024-25.

Combined receipts from contributions and investment income reportedly reached approximately Rs158.572 billion in 2024-25.

This shows that EOBI still has significant revenue sources.

The problem highlighted by the actuarial report is not necessarily immediate insolvency, but whether those revenues will remain sufficient as pension liabilities grow over the coming decade.

Pension Payments Are Rising

EOBI’s pension expenditure has also continued to increase.

Reported pension disbursements rose from approximately:

Rs51 billion in 2022-23

to

Rs57.1 billion in 2023-24

and then to

Rs59.506 billion in 2024-25.

An increasing number of beneficiaries means EOBI must continue generating enough income to meet these obligations every year.

Number of Pensioners Continues to Grow

The number of EOBI pension beneficiaries has increased as well.

Figures presented to the ECC showed:

2022-23: 411,235 pensioners

2023-24: 424,750 pensioners

2024-25: 436,175 pensioners.

As more insured workers reach retirement age, the number of pension recipients could continue increasing.

That is one of the reasons long-term financial planning is becoming increasingly important.

Could Employer Contributions Increase?

One option identified in the financial projections is an increase in the contribution collection rate from employers.

The actuarial analysis indicated that higher contribution collections could help reduce the projected funding gap.

However, no new employer contribution rate should be considered final unless it is officially approved and notified.

Any change would likely require a formal legal or government process.

Could the Federal Government Contribute More?

Additional financial support from the federal government was also identified as a possible way to strengthen EOBI’s long-term financial position.

The projections suggest that employer contributions alone may not be sufficient to meet future liabilities under the current system.

Government participation could therefore become an important issue in future EOBI reforms.

Will EOBI Pension Stop?

There is no indication that EOBI pension payments are about to stop.

The Rs237 billion figure is a long-term projection extending to 2036-37.

It should not be interpreted as meaning EOBI currently has no money to pay pensioners.

In fact, contribution income and investment earnings have continued to grow.

The purpose of the actuarial projection is to identify future financial risks early enough for corrective measures to be taken.

Does This Mean EOBI Pension Will Be Reduced?

No official pension reduction has been announced.

The financial sustainability discussion does not automatically mean pensions will be cut.

Possible reforms could instead focus on:

• Increasing contribution collection
• Registering more employers
• Bringing more workers into EOBI
• Improving investment performance
• Receiving federal financial support
• Reducing contribution defaults

The final policy response has not yet been announced.

What About a Future EOBI Pension Increase?

Pensioners should distinguish between two separate issues:

future pension increases

and

long-term financial sustainability.

A projected deficit does not itself confirm or cancel a future pension increase.

Any pension increase would still depend on EOBI’s financial position, actuarial assessment and government approval.

Therefore, claims that the projected deficit means pensions can never increase are not supported by the current information.

Latest Economic Survey Shows Strong Contribution Collection

Pakistan’s Economic Survey 2025-26 also reported significant EOBI contribution collection.

During July 2025 to March 2026, EOBI collected approximately Rs63.146 billion in contributions.

This represented an increase of about 11.47% compared with the corresponding reported figure for the previous year.

During the same period, total pension and benefit disbursement was approximately Rs54.292 billion.

These figures show that EOBI continues to collect and distribute substantial amounts of money.

How Many Employees Are Registered With EOBI?

According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26, approximately 11.99 million employees were registered with EOBI as of February 28, 2026.

The survey also recorded approximately:

• 322,751 active old-age pensioners
• 248,357 survivor pensioners
• 7,009 invalidity pensioners

These numbers underline the scale of EOBI’s responsibilities.

Why Financial Sustainability Matters for Pensioners

Long-term sustainability matters because pension schemes must be able to pay benefits not only today but for decades into the future.

A financially stable EOBI would be better positioned to:

• Pay pensions on time
• Support future pensioners
• Consider pension increases
• Maintain survivor